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Parliament in Austria approved mandatory vaccination of adults against COVID-19 from February 1. We should also introduce such compulsory vaccinations as soon as possible, I have been in favor of them for almost a year - told PAP Prof. Maciej Banach from the Mother of Poland He alth Center in Łódź.
Austria is the first country in the European Union to introduce mandatory COVID-19 vaccination for all people over 18 years of age. Prof. Maciej Banach believes that compulsory vaccinations should primarily concern medical staff and teachers, as well as people over 65, the most at risk of disease and death due to COVID-19.
PAP: What awaits us in the coming weeks? You work closely with the institute responsible for international forecasting for the fifth wave of the pandemic.
Prof. Maciej Banach:Analyzes as part of the Global Burden of Disease Institute for He alth Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington in Seatle under the supervision of prof. Christopher Murray has previously suggested that in the fifth wave of the pandemic, 3 to 4 billion people in the world, and in Poland even 10 million of our countrymen, will fall ill due to the Omikron infection. These calculations may even be underestimated given the extremely infectious nature of this variant. We may even have several hundred thousand infections a day. And I'm afraid even a third of our population may get sick.
PAP: How serious can this be? A slight "cold"?
Prof. M.B.: Most infections will be mildly or even asymptomatic. We will not even be able to test them, because there are no such logistical possibilities. It therefore seems that all or almost all of us need to be contaminated with the Omikron variant. And then there is a chance that the pandemic may finally end.
PAP: I don't know if this is an optimistic scenario.
Prof. M.B. : Many conditions must be met for this to happen. These analyzes primarily concern countries that are well vaccinated against COVID-19 and therefore better protected against infection. A lot also depends on how the recommendations and restrictions are followed, for example wearingmasks in public places.
PAP: Countries with less immunization and less social discipline remain the main problem in the pandemic?
Prof. M.B. : In poorly vaccinated countries there is still a risk of new variants emerging. Delta comes from India, and Omikron - from South Africa, and therefore from countries with a lower anti-anti-human population, there will always be a risk of the emergence of new variants.
PAP: In which regions may the pandemic end soon?
Prof. M.B. : In those countries where vaccination is at least 75-80 percent. and specific rules and recommendations for pandemic management are introduced. In other countries, there is always a risk that another new variant of SARS-CoV-2 may emerge. I'm trying to be hopeful that we will also deal with the coronavirus soon.
PAP: I am also an optimist, but in our country the vaccination of society is still much lower.
Prof. M.B.: Unfortunately, it still reaches 57-58 percent, we don't even have the level of 60 percent. grafting. The problem is also that only a quarter of people who got vaccinated with two doses or one (in the case of Johnson & Johnson) took a booster dose, known as a booster dose. booster. The latest data in the US show that the intake of two doses of the vaccine (e.g. mRNA) reduces the risk of death from COVID-19 by thirteen times, and after a booster dose it drops as much as 97 times. It is a significant protection against the most serious complications and death.
PAP: There is a widespread view in Poland that it is enough, and even one has to get COVID-19, and one does not need to get vaccinated.
Prof. M.B. : I am not a supporter of this view. The fact is that there are studies to suggest that if we get sick and vaccinated, or vice versa - we get vaccinated first and then get sick, the level of antibodies can be up to fifty times higher than in people only vaccinated, even with a booster. However, we know from research that the level of antibodies in people who only have a disease lasts much shorter than in vaccinated people and does not provide full protection against infection, especially such infectious as Omikron. Therefore, there is no argument that it is not worth promoting vaccination even in those who have contracted COVID-19. On the contrary.
PAP: Many people, even those vaccinated with three doses, will not avoid infection with the Omikron variant. Should everything be let go "to the element"?
Prof. M.B.: No, not at all. I am in favor of restrictions, of coursesmart, thoughtful restrictions. So if we are in an upward wave of infections and we have an increase of more than one hundred percent every day compared to what was last week, then all schools should be closed. I have school children and I know that remote learning has huge disabilities, but now we are fighting for the he alth and life of our countrymen. And schools are outbreaks of contamination.
PAP: When it comes to children, only a small part of them have been vaccinated.
Prof. M.B. : Only every 5-6 child is vaccinated, also their parents, i.e. 30-40-year-olds, are the least vaccinated group in Poland, and Omikron is attacking young middle-aged people from 36 to 39 years old, and also children.
PAP: We have many opponents of vaccination against COVID-19 in the country.
Prof. M.B. : Unfortunately, in the last two years since the outbreak of the pandemic, we have probably wasted all the opportunities for well-prepared pro-he alth education, knowledge about the coronavirus and skillful fight against fake news. We are already tired of the pandemic and daily data shows that it is difficult to encourage more people to vaccinate, including a booster dose. Of course you have to try, no matter what the circumstances. Education should still be conducted because it is still insufficient. There is, for example, a lack of good debates debunking anti-vaccination myths. Let's learn from our own experiences, from the experiences of other successful countries.
PAP: But what can and should we do now at the beginning of the fifth wave?
Prof. M.B. : Shortening the quarantine and introducing the possibility of testing in pharmacies is insufficient. I understand that the reduction of the quarantine is for businesses and hospitals to function normally. Because despite the lack of restrictions, some of them may be closed anyway, because a large percentage of people will be in isolation or in quarantine. Any action to contain an epidemic is useful, even one that is well overdue. For example, the legally regulated possibility of checking covid passports or the introduction of regional lockdowns. I am a supporter of compulsory vaccination against COVID-19, I was probably one of the first experts who demanded it for selected groups in the spring of 2022
PAP: Will it help on Omikron too?
Prof. M.B. : Omicron is the most infectious, but most likely a few times less dangerous. Data from other countries show that there are several times fewer cases of disease due to severe pneumonia requiring oxygen therapy and connection to a ventilator.There are also fewer deaths. However, it must be remembered that we are talking about the fact that there may be as many as several hundred thousand infections a day. Therefore, if this variant is several times less virulent, many people will still get sick, and some patients will have a severe course of the disease and will die. So whatever we do now, even if it is very late, could reduce the number of deaths. So far, however, we are doing little or nothing. And in a moment there will be no one to heal and some of the sick will die at home. We do not use the experience provided by science and the course of the pandemic to date. We do not use Evidence Based Medicine.
PAP: The data reported to the European Center for Disease Control (ECDC) in the period from December 23, 2022 to January 23, 2022 shows that in our country we have a record number in the European Union during this period 11,767 deaths from COVID-19. Germany is second with 7,394 deaths, followed by Italy (7,365) and France (6,568).
Prof. M.B. : At the turn of December 2022 and January 2022, there were almost 12 deaths per 100,000 people in Poland. inhabitants, it is four times more than the EU average. Currently, there are about 6 / 100,000, three times more than our neighbors in the Czech Republic or Germany. Remember, however, that the wave of deaths will come in the period from 2 to 3 weeks after the peak of infection. However, we are still not changing our anti-epidemic policy. I assure you, as doctors, we are unable to accept the fact that so many people die in Poland because of the pandemic.
PAP: Maybe the fifth wave will reach its apogee soon, and then it will also fall quickly?
Prof. M.B. : Analyzes show that this wave may actually be short and may pass relatively quickly. However, it must be remembered that a large number of daily infections will pass quickly, and then there will be many severe courses of the disease and more deaths. There will also be long-term complications. At the Polish Mother's Memorial Hospital, we have many cases of the so-called Long Covid, young people with myocarditis and heart failure, thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. Hence, it is really very important to test as much as possible, introduce appropriate regulations to minimize the effects of these infections as much as possible.
PAP: Is it still worth introducing mandatory vaccinations against COVID-19? So far only Austria has chosen to do so.
Prof. M.B. : Absolutely. I don't understand why we haven't done it yet. There are many compulsory medical procedures that we do legally, including vaccinations. And in case ofCOVID-19 is still being discussed. Do we have the right to implement compulsory such vaccinations? Yes, we have that right. And it has recently been confirmed by the Ombudsman, and for the sake of population he alth, we should do it as soon as possible. Compulsory vaccinations should be primarily for medical staff and teachers, as well as for people over 65, and therefore those most at risk of disease and death due to COVID-19.