Scientists from Sweden have prepared two pandemic scenarios. One of them predicts the possibility of the emergence of a new SARS-CoV-2 mutation, which will bypass acquired immunity.
The Swedish Public He alth Authority presented two scenarios for the development of the pandemic. The findings show that the coronavirus will spread at a very low level in Sweden by mid-May, or a new version will appear in March. According to experts, a possible mutation may cause an increase in infections, but the Swedish authorities do not foresee that there will be a need to introduce new restrictions in spring.
The first forecast is optimistic. According to experts, "the number of Omicron infections will decline sharply and then stabilize in March and remain low until summer." for the development of the pandemic. If the new version of the coronavirus had the same infectivity as Omikron, the peak of COVID-19 infections would be in mid-May.
The Public He alth Authority decided to hypothetically assume that the new variant would have the ability to overcome immunity acquired through vaccination and COVID-19 infection. For this reason, it is important to maintain a high level of preparedness in he althcare and care, emphasized Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.
On the other hand, the Swedish authorities do not assume that it will be necessary to restore the pandemic restrictions, which were lifted on February 9, by May 20. Scientists estimate that the level of COVID-19 cases caused by the Omikron variant has peaked. In recent days, a lower burden on he alth care has been observed, which can be seen in the decline in the number of infected patients in hospitals, including intensive care units.